Most cryptocurrencies have experienced strong downturns during this period amid the ongoing armed conflict between Iran and Israel and the possibility that the U.S. could get involved at some point.
Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is expected to convene later this afternoon to make a decision on interest rates.
The prevailing opinion among analysts is that no changes will be made to the federal funds rate but that does not mean that Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments can’t have a strong impact in crypto’s price action.
In the past 24 hours, BTC has managed to recover by 0.3% and trading volumes have been relatively calm ahead of the Fed’s press release and Powell’s speech.
Despite the latest setback, Bitcoin is still in positive territory on a year-to-date (YTD) basis with gains of 12.3% as the token reached an all-time high recently. BTC and XRP are the only assets in the top 5 that are still clinging to their year-to-date gains.
Bitcoin’s DeFi ecosystem has been expanding lately amid the launch of Babylon Protocol (BABY).
This decentralized app is currently the largest in the Bitcoin ecosystem with a total value locked (TVL) of $4.9 billion. They offer permissionless staking without handing over custody of their BTC to a third party.
Babylon is giving Bitcoin investors a secure alternative to stake their valuable assets without exposing them to bridges or protocols that can (and have been) exploited in the past.
This could lead to a significant expansion of Bitcoin’s DeFi ecosystem and could draw further interest to BTC as it expands its use cases beyond a safe haven or store of value.
Looking at the 4-hour chart, we can see that BTC just broke below the $107,000 level – an area that had been relevant to market participants recently.
Now the price is on crash course toward the $101,000. However, the downtrend has stopped briefly to consolidate at around $105,000 and upon breaking below the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA).
Both the 9-day and 21-day EMA seem headed to make a ‘death cross’ below their long-term peer and this could trigger the resumption of BTC’s downtrend.
A death cross between the two short-term EMAs confirmed that negative momentum is accelerating but this final crossover will confirm a change in the asset’s trend from downtrend to uptrend.
Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped below the 14-day moving average, which favors a bearish outlook as well and means that the strength of the downtrend is increasing.
Heading to a lower time frame, we can see that this ‘death cross’ has already occurred in the 1-hour chart. This favors a push to the $101,000 support area in the near term.
If that area falters and buying pressure is weak, we could see BTC dropping to $100,000 and even lower if the selling pressure accelerates.
With so many potentially negative catalysts on the table, the market seems to be adopting a cautious approach.
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