Natural Gas Price Forecast: Consolidates at Key Moving Average Support

Natural gas continued to consolidate on Friday around support for the week. It traded inside Thursday’s price range, reaching a high of $3.62 and a low of $3.50. The low for the day was a successful test of support at the 20-Day MA (purple), which is at $3.51. That is a minor sign of strength along with the observation that that 20-Day line started to rise above the 50-Day MA (orange) recently after converging with it for a few days. This shows a recovery of both the 20-Day and 50-Day MAs after minor drops below them over the prior two days.

Failed Weekly Breakdown

Weekly support from last week was at $3.50 and it was broken on Wednesday. However, it was not confirmed with a daily close below that price level. Therefore, a weekly closing price above that level could be the sign of a false breakdown. Currently, today’s closing price will be above that price level and at a four-day closing high, another sign of strength.

Key Near-term Support at $3.44

Nonetheless, key support is at a minor higher swing low of $3.44, while this week’s low was at $3.45. If the slightly lower $3.44 level fails, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $3.38 is the next lower target where support may be seen. Then, a little lower is the 200-Day MA, now at $3.32.

Watching for Breakout Above $3.62

A decisive breakout above today’s high of $3.62 could be the next sign of strength that has the potential to lead to higher prices. But the four-day high of $3.66 would need to be exceeded before there are clearer signs of a bottom. A recovery of the $3.66 level would establish a slightly higher swing low from this week. Solid potential resistance lies above and up to the $3.84 swing high from May. If natural gas can get above the May swing high, it has a chance to complete a rising ABCD pattern at $4.08. That price level is joined by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $4.12.

Above 200-Day MA is Bullish

Given the two recent bounces off the area around the 200-Day MA since April, the uptrend begun from the April swing low is expected to continue. That could change if there is a decisive decline below the 200-Day line.

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