Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Rising OPEC+ Output Meets Shaky Price Momentum

Market Overview

WTI crude oil hovered near $72.77 per barrel on Wednesday, its highest level since January, as heightened geopolitical tensions stoked concerns over potential supply disruptions. While critical infrastructure remains unaffected, the threat of broader regional instability has underpinned prices.

Despite these risks, oil markets remain buffered by robust global supply, driven by rising OPEC+ output and record-high U.S. production.

Supporting the bullish sentiment, U.S. industry data showed crude inventories fell by over 10 million barrels last week, the steepest draw since mid-2023. Traders are closely watching for confirmation from official data as volatility looms over the energy sector.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural gas futures (NGN2025) are trading near $3.871, consolidating just below the $3.896 resistance after a sharp rally. Price action remains inside an ascending channel, with higher highs and higher lows supporting the bullish trend.

However, the current pause near the upper channel boundary suggests the uptrend may be losing steam. A break above $3.896 could open the door toward $3.943 and $3.990, while support rests at $3.844, followed by $3.785.

The 50-EMA at $3.726 continues to slope upward, confirming short-term bullish momentum. As long as the price holds above the mid-channel and 50-EMA, the trend remains upward, but traders should watch for a potential pullback if $3.844 fails to hold.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI crude oil is hovering around $72.77, struggling to maintain gains after failing to hold above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $73.42. The 50% level at $72.13 now serves as immediate support, while the 61.8% level, near $70.85, aligns with the 50-period EMA and could provide a firmer floor.

The recent price rejection near the 23.6% level at $75.01 suggests weakening bullish momentum. The MACD crossover appears neutral, although the histogram bars are narrowing, indicating indecision.

For upside continuation, bulls need a decisive break above $73.42, targeting $75.01. On the downside, a close below $72.13 could open the door toward $70.85 and $69.02.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent crude oil (UKOIL) is trading near $75.89 after facing resistance around the $77.26 zone. The recent pullback suggests profit-taking after a strong bullish run. Price remains well above the 50-EMA ($73.21), which has consistently acted as dynamic support.

The trendline from the June 11 low reinforces this bullish structure, intersecting near $73.42. A daily close below $74.82 could expose Brent to further downside, potentially reaching $73.42 or $72.16.

However, holding above $75 could allow bulls to attempt another push toward $77.26 and potentially $78.48.